In 1994, to address a Department of Defense need for estimating potential
threats to both military and civilian populations resulting from accidents or
terrorist strikes against world nuclear facilities, ORNL initiated a broad range
of interrelated activities that have led to products now used throughout the
Department of Defense for planning, post-event analysis, and emergency response.
The first product, developed with other commercial contractors, was a
forward-deployed computer code named HASCAL that calculates the atmospheric
dispersion of radiological material as a result of accidents or incidents at any
nuclear facility in the world, including commercial and research reactors,
enrichment facilities, reprocessing facilities, etc. Initially, ORNL's primary
development of a complete database of default isotopic inventories at
these world facilities and corresponding models for updating the database
using known or assumed operating conditions
development of health-related data, primarily radiological dose
factors, for over 1100 nuclides that might be dispersed
development of atmospheric source terms corresponding to ranges of
accidents/incidents for each nuclear facility type
graphical user interface development for specific user profiles.
The commercial developers were responsible for weather data and models, the
atmospheric transport model, nuclear weapon effects models, and overall system
integration. Over the last few years, the code has been continually upgraded by
ORNL and others to include a capability for assessing atmospheric dispersions of
chemical and biological materials as well as additional dispersal scenarios for
radiological sources. The code and related data are now distributed as the
Hazard Prediction and Assessment Capability (HPAC).
addition to the ongoing HPAC development in the areas mentioned above, ORNL has
also developed additional capabilities for use in planning, post-event analysis,
and emergency response.
development of a water transport model for eventual incorporation into HPAC.
development of a finer resolution world population database from
integration of various types of satellite data
development of a fine-scale worldwide landcover database for use in
development of platform-independent, client-server, web-based
architectures for HPAC and other DOD products.
This effort is sponsored by the Defense Threat Reduction Agency (formerly the
Defense Special Weapons Agency and the Defense Nuclear Agency). HPAC is currently
used in all military command centers throughout the world and has been used
during the Salt Lake Olympics, Bosnia conflict, Atlanta Olympics, Presidential Inauguration,
and Gulf War illness studies.