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Hazard Prediction and Assessment Capability

 

In 1994, to address a Department of Defense need for estimating potential threats to both military and civilian populations resulting from accidents or terrorist strikes against world nuclear facilities, ORNL initiated a broad range of interrelated activities that have led to products now used throughout the Department of Defense for planning, post-event analysis, and emergency response. The first product, developed with other commercial contractors, was a forward-deployed computer code named HASCAL that calculates the atmospheric dispersion of radiological material as a result of accidents or incidents at any nuclear facility in the world, including commercial and research reactors, enrichment facilities, reprocessing facilities, etc. Initially, ORNL's primary contributions were:

  1. development of a complete database of default isotopic inventories at these world facilities and corresponding models for updating the database using known or assumed operating conditions

  2. development of health-related data, primarily radiological dose factors, for over 1100 nuclides that might be dispersed

  3. development of atmospheric source terms corresponding to ranges of accidents/incidents for each nuclear facility type

  4. graphical user interface development for specific user profiles.

The commercial developers were responsible for weather data and models, the atmospheric transport model, nuclear weapon effects models, and overall system integration. Over the last few years, the code has been continually upgraded by ORNL and others to include a capability for assessing atmospheric dispersions of chemical and biological materials as well as additional dispersal scenarios for radiological sources. The code and related data are now distributed as the Hazard Prediction and Assessment Capability (HPAC).

In addition to the ongoing HPAC development in the areas mentioned above, ORNL has also developed additional capabilities for use in planning, post-event analysis, and emergency response.

  1. development of a water transport model for eventual incorporation into HPAC.
  2. development of a finer resolution world population database from integration of various types of satellite data
  3. development of a fine-scale worldwide landcover database for use in HPAC
  4. development of platform-independent, client-server, web-based architectures for HPAC and other DOD products.

This effort is sponsored by the Defense Threat Reduction Agency (formerly the Defense Special Weapons Agency and the Defense Nuclear Agency).  HPAC is currently used in all military command centers throughout the world and has been used during the Salt Lake Olympics, Bosnia conflict, Atlanta Olympics, Presidential Inauguration, and Gulf War illness studies.

For additional information contact: Bob Morris, MorrisRH@ORNL.gov, 865-576-5878



  
 
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URL: http://computing.ornl.gov/cse_home/hpac.shtml
Updated: Tuesday, 30-Nov-2004 16:33:17 EST

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